Social Media Friends and the Birthday Paradox

by Tricia on December 30, 2009

I was noticing last night that of my 400 Facebook friends, 5 of them have a birthday on Thursday. That’s not including the ones that are businesses with a “start date” of the end of the year or friends who do not allow access to their birthday. I mentioned to my husband that it was improbable. With 365 days in a year, I should only have one birthday friend per day–two tops. He started talking about the “birthday paradox” and how if you put only 23 people in a room, you would have 2 people with the same birthday. I thought he was nuts. I mean, 365 days? Out of 23 people 2 will have the same birthday?

So of course I did a search for it. I found the “Birthday Problem” Wikipedia page, which explains that if you have 23 people together, there is a 50% chance that 2 of them will have the same birthday. If you get 57 people, there is a 99% chance that 2 of them will have the same birthday. It still doesn’t seem possible. 366 possible birthdays. 57 people and you have a 99% chance of the same birthday popping up?

Here is where YOU come in. I need a little help from my social media friends because I can’t get 23 or 57 people into a room today. Can you leave a comment below with your name and your birthday? I don’t need the year. Leave your name so I can verify you’re real people when two birthdays pop up the same and it isn’t just someone messing with me. I’ll make a little chart and we’ll see how many people have to comment before we get the same birthday. Curiosity has gotten the best of me now!!

Edited: It took only 18 people posting to get our first repeat birthday. We defied the odds! And my husband proved, once again, that he is better at math than I am.

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{ 24 comments… read them below or add one }

Nicky Kunstman February 3, 2010 at 8:47 am

Mine is March 12th. Good luck!

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Brad Gosse January 9, 2010 at 2:50 pm

December 3rd :)

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barb phipps December 30, 2009 at 6:27 pm

your auntie, 12/31

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Hedy@penny for my thoughts December 30, 2009 at 5:38 pm

January 30

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Eric Nagel December 30, 2009 at 12:45 pm

Jan-18
also known as the 2nd day of ASW – remember that! ;)

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Heather M(bajam) December 30, 2009 at 12:41 pm

Feb. 17.

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James December 30, 2009 at 11:55 am

12/26

we met last year at aff summit. I was with Alex and Anne.

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Patti P December 30, 2009 at 11:51 am

Interesting!

June 11

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Leslie December 30, 2009 at 11:14 am

Interested to see your results!

August 20

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Kathie December 30, 2009 at 10:38 am

I’m April 2nd. If Angela sees this and posts…….she’s April 2nd too.

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Janet December 30, 2009 at 10:31 am

November 8th.

Interesting…I just checked my FB. I have 3 days during the year that I have 4 friends with the same birthday…including Cindy’s birthday! My DH and a good friend have the same birthday…year and all.

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Jen K December 30, 2009 at 10:19 am

Awesome I live stuff like this! I’m Dec 11th

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Anjanette December 30, 2009 at 10:13 am

October 5th :)

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Liz December 30, 2009 at 10:09 am

Sept 14 for me.

Can’t wait to see how this turns out! Interestingly enough, we have a high occurence of this in my extended family. Sept 15 is a big day for us–one nephew, one SIL, another SIL and an aunt all the same day! Also Dec 3–my sis, nephew and BIL! And my college roommate had the same birthday as me–we were actually born about an hour apart. It’s crazy!

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Robin December 30, 2009 at 9:56 am

April 18

I’ve read this stat before and it’s true! I’m interested to see what you come up with-

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Cindy December 30, 2009 at 9:32 am

Mine is Nov 20th

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Leslie December 30, 2009 at 9:26 am

Very interesting…..May 20

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King Butter December 30, 2009 at 9:26 am

09/18

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Carla December 30, 2009 at 9:22 am

Interesting…. December 17

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Lea Ann December 30, 2009 at 9:20 am

September 7th

Interrsting tidbit for you — my husband and daughter have the same birthday – January 27th.

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Michael December 30, 2009 at 9:11 am

August 26 here.

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Catherine @ The Blonde Diaries December 30, 2009 at 9:00 am

Interesting. Mine is Sept 10th. I will say that growing up there was a guy in my class that shared my birthday so there is probably some truth to that.

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Ayako Bingham December 30, 2009 at 8:55 am

Interesting experiment!

My birthday is 12/26 and I am forever 18yrs old :)

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lisa picarille December 30, 2009 at 8:52 am

curiosity or the need to prove your hubby wrong? lol.

my birthday is february 6th.

good luck with your experiment!

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